New Study: Most Children Born Today Unlikely to Live to 100, Expert Analysis Shows

A recent study led by gerontologist Jay Olshansky, published in Nature Aging, reveals that only a small percentage of children born today are likely to live to 100, contrary to past predictions. 

New born baby

The analysis examined lifespan data from several countries, showing that only 5.1% of females and 1.8% of males born in 2019 have a chance of reaching their centenary.

Olshansky, a professor of epidemiology at the University of Illinois, had previously predicted this trend in the 1990s, despite opposition from those who believed advances in medical technology would dramatically extend human life. Now, 34 years later, he argues that life expectancy increases have slowed, primarily due to the biological limits of aging.

The study emphasizes that while medical interventions continue to extend life, they do so at a diminishing rate. Olshansky highlights that slowing the biological aging process is the only way to significantly extend human lifespan. He also notes that rising obesity and associated diseases like diabetes have contributed to the plateau in life expectancy, despite advancements in treatments.

Olshansky warns against unrealistic claims of humans living to 150 years, stressing that while medical advances may extend lifespan, the focus should be on improving health span—living healthier, not just longer lives.